On Monday, March 16, the Falvey Speakers’ Corner hosted Matt Kerbel, Professor Emeritus in the Department of Political Science, for a lecture titled “An Early Look at the 2026 Midterm Election.”
Midterm elections are an opportunity for the electorate to pass judgment on the results of the previous presidential election. Considering the importance of midterms, Kerbel explained that signs suggest the upcoming midterm elections will be abnormal.
Kerbel introduced the concept of “wave elections” that he uses throughout his talk. “Wave elections” occur when political energy is gathered early before any election. This energy accumulates leading up to the election until it cannot be stopped. A “wave election” can lead to unusual results, where incumbents who would typically be safe are not.
First, the 2026 midterm elections in November are unlike previous years because of public support for the president’s performance.
“The less popular the president, the more difficult it is for the president’s party to be successful in the midterms,” Kerbel said.
Currently, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is 38%, while the disapproval is 57%, according to aggregate polls from Strength in Numbers. Furthermore, half as many people strongly approve of the president as strongly disapprove.
“So not only are these overall approval levels low, but they are also not very intensely held,” Kerbel said. “So, we find evidence that the Republican Party may be in trouble in November.”
Additionally, the upcoming midterm elections are important because every Class II Senate seat will be up for reelection. This gives Democrats an opportunity to regain control of the Senate, if they can win back four seats and maintain control of the ones they already have. The Democrats have invested money in 44 seats currently held by Republicans, while Republicans have targeted 26 seats.
“Now what this tells me is the Republicans are going on offense in fewer places, because they know they are going to need to conserve their resources to defend more seats,” Kerbel said.
The number of seats Democrats are targeting suggests they see an opportunity to pick up more seats than in a normal midterm.
Nonetheless, Kerbel says these measures are not yet predictive. They are only descriptive. Signs of the president’s unpopularity, higher voter turnout among Democrats and a sustained Democratic lead in the generic ballot point to this year being a wave election.
During the Q&A, a question arose about the possibility of a crisis occurring that could stop the wave. This question prompted Kerbel to discuss the current U.S.-Iran conflict and the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) presence in Minnesota.
In reference to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, Kerbel claimed the war with Iran has been unpopular from the beginning. Usually, during wartime, a country experiences the “rally effect,” in which people rally behind the president. However, this is not the case with the conflict with Iran, so it does not have the potential to interrupt the wave.
Concerning the ICE surge in Minnesota, the St. Paul area held a special election during a time when people did not want to leave their homes. This is a known Democratic district, so although the outcome was predictable, the turnout rate was unexpected. Two years ago, the Democratic candidate won by 72 points; this year, by 91 points.
“What this means is that the people who didn’t show up were Republicans, and people who did show up wanted to send a message,” Kerbel said.
Whether the early signs of a wave election materialize will depend largely on voter turnout and how motivated voters are to participate in November. Many voters participate only in presidential elections, but elections that determine the makeup of the House and Senate are just as significant. Kerbel emphasized that midterms often serve as the electorate’s first opportunity to pass judgment on a president’s performance and the country’s direction.
