As President-Elect Donald Trump starts to select key cabinet members for his incoming administration, newly-elected senators embark on their orientation, and the Biden-Harris administration prepares for a transfer of power, it is only natural that self-proclaimed political junkies focus on what’s (sort of) next: the 2028 presidential election.
Unlike the 2024 presidential election, the 2028 cycle is bound to be much more interesting due to what is almost certain to be an intensive primary season for Democrats and Republicans alike. On the Democratic side of the aisle, it is clear that President Biden will not run for re-election, a decision likely influenced by considerations regarding his age, which ultimately led to his withdrawal from the race in July of 2024. On the Republican side of the aisle, President-Elect Trump is unable to launch an election bid due to executive term limitations. This leaves us with three pressing questions: who will the primary candidates be? Who among these groups has the highest chance of clinching the two major party nominations? Out of the two final nominees, who is most likely to win the general election?
On the Democratic side of the aisle, I foresee the top three primary candidates being California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and surprise candidate – former First Lady Michelle Obama. Although none of these individuals have officially declared their intentions to run, their activities suggest they are positioning themselves to gain support within their party. Governor Newsom has proactively addressed potential Trump policies by meeting with President Biden, aiming to safeguard the progressive initiatives California has implemented during his six years as Governor. As for Governor Shapiro, his popularity is sure to make him a top contender in the Democratic field, as he enjoys a solid 56 percent approval rating in Pennsylvania, a state defined by its ever changing (and often unpredictable) political identity. Lastly, First Lady Michelle Obama is one of my wild card candidates due to her heavy presence on the campaign trail for Vice President Harris in the closing weeks of the 2024 presidential race. Polls show she has a high favorability rating among Democratic voters despite not holding elected office. However, her background in law may be appetizing to voters seeking an educated, yet “non-establishment” candidate.
On the Republican side of the aisle, I foresee the top three primary candidates being Vice President-Elect JD Vance, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Should Vance’s term as vice president prove successful, he might benefit from the diluted incumbency advantage that often accompanies the presidential primary race. His diverse background as a lawyer, venture capitalist, author and Ohio Senator renders him a well-rounded candidate capable of appealing to a broad spectrum of voters. I believe Vance’s toughest competition will be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is widely lauded for his success in handling the COVID-19 pandemic and hurricane recovery efforts. He enjoys 60 percent-plus favorability ratings in the Sunshine State, which begs the question: will this approval translate on the national scale? Lastly, Ramaswamy’s rise can be attributed to his strong debate performances and his outsider status reminiscent of Trump’s initial appeal in 2015.
With this diverse array of candidates in mind, I predict that the 2028 General presidential election will culminate in an extremely competitive matchup between Shapiro and Vance. The outcome is reliant upon the performance of the second Trump administration and the results of the 2026 midterms. However, if I had to put money on the 2028 race, I would lean toward the idea that Vance holds a slight advantage in this toss-up.
Although it is difficult to accurately predict events so far away ( but somehow just around the corner), following the platforms of these potential candidates and their trajectories will assist us in making informed decisions about which candidates reflect the ideals of our nation most accurately. Whether one is looking at a field of seasoned politicians, rookie candidates or the revival of some long lost movement, let us raise a toast to all the colorful, chaotic surprises that lie ahead, no matter how far off they may be.
