With just a little over a year until the 2024 presidential election, all signs are pointing to a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. With Biden having no serious threat to his re-nomination and Trump maintaining his dominance over the current GOP primary field, this matchup is one that a majority did not ask for, but will get in the next year.

However, recently declared independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. offers voters who are tired of these candidates an opportunity to voice their frustrations with both major parties. While he has garnered a sizable amount of support as of late, he has virtually no chance at winning the presidency. With that being said, considering current polls, it is almost certain that RFK Jr. will at least make his presence known on the ballot next year. The real question is whether it will be enough to act as a spoiler for one of the major parties, and who exactly that will benefit.

RFK Jr. first declared his campaign for the White House earlier this spring, with the intent of running in the Democratic primary. At one point, he had the support of about 19% of likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Fox News poll conducted in late April, a very surprising and impressive showing for a candidate running against an incumbent president. However, as the months went on, Kennedy’s political history and rise in popularity among conservatives saw his support somewhat decreasing among the democratic electorate. This shift is what likely led to RFK Jr. moving forward in his presidential bid as a third-party candidate.

But what does he hope to gain from running as an independent? In the campaign speech that officially announced his switch to an independent candidate for the upcoming election, he stated that he intends to “spoil it for both of them.” 

Now, both the Biden and Trump campaigns are sounding the alarm on his candidacy. His famous last name as well as the majority of the electorate viewing the current major party contenders negatively sets RFK Jr. up to be the strongest independent challenger in decades, even rivaling Ross Perot’s independent run in 1992.

In a very recent USA Today/Suffolk University Poll, a three-way race between Trump, Biden and Kennedy showed Trump and Biden tied at 37%, with RFK Jr. receiving 13% of the vote. This number is very unusual given the increasing political polarization that has taken place in the country. So, given that he will certainly be a factor in next year’s election, which political party will be most affected by his presidential bid?

There are many unknowns and plenty of time until Election Day, but I believe that RFK Jr. will spoil the election in favor of Trump. For one reason, in the Democratic primary, nearly one-fifth of voters are, at the very least, intrigued at a Kennedy presidency, as shown in Kennedy’s early polling numbers in the spring. In addition, just this past August in a USA Today-IPSOS poll, 56% of Democrat voters disapproved of Biden’s reelection effort. This is also during a time where voter enthusiasm among democrats is lower than that of republican voters, likely due to concerns about his age and mental fitness.

Biden has also faced near record-low approval ratings, as he now currently sits at 37%, rivaling that of his predecessor. Republicans and democrats alike have called into question how his administration has handled issues such as the economy and foreign policy. Biden is also currently having to deal with an impeachment inquiry into his alleged ties to his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings while he was vice president. All of these factors could play a significant role in shaping who the referendum is going to be on, and they could lead to some moderate democrats and independents swinging Kennedy’s way.

It is worth mentioning that there is also evidence to conclude that Kennedy’s presidential run could take away more Trump supporters. Kennedy’s presence amongst conservative outlets, as well as his positions on issues such as vaccination, free speech and gender transitioning, may make him an appealing option for those wary of a third Trump bid for the White House. Trump’s legal trouble could also have moderate republican and independent voters looking for an alternative choice. 

His dropping out of the democratic primary process also highlights the waning support among his former party, with him now having a higher favorability rating among republicans.

Villanova University Political Science Professor David Barret, whose main field of study is the U.S. presidency, echoed these thoughts about RFK Jr. being a spoiler in favor of Biden. 

“If Kennedy should do well [in the general election], he’ll hurt Trump as much or more as Biden because of his political stances,” he said. 

Barret went on to say that his prediction could differ if asked again six months from now, as recent elections as of late have proven to be unpredictable.

However, a new NBC News poll which came out last month measured enthusiasm for both Trump and Biden within their parties. The poll found that Trump supporters were far more enthusiastic about their candidate, as 56% of them said they are actively voting for Trump. This is compared to 58% of Democratic voters that said they were voting against Trump rather than for Biden. The stark contrast emphasizes Trump’s strength among his supporters, showing that a large part of Biden’s voting base is not too thrilled about his second bid for the presidency.

There is still more than a year until Election Day, and there could indeed be unpredictable factors like an economic downturn or a conviction in one of Trump’s cases that could shift the math in favor of one candidate. 

That being said, RFK Jr. at this point should be a warning for Biden that despite his incumbent advantage, he should not take the independent competitor or his voting base lightly, as doing so will likely end up with Trump being the 47th President of the United States.